Monday, July 18, 2016

Will Brexit Really Happen?

On the morning that Andrea Leadsom (the other contestant in the Conservatives Party leadership contest) pulled out, the Prime Minister, then Home Secretary, was in Birmingham and launched her campaign to becoming the leader of the party and hence, Prime Minister. In the launching statement, she argued that "Brexit means Brexit". Quite. But the problem is, in no part of that speech did she describe, define or explain what 'Brexit' stands for.

Depending on who you speak - or listen - to, your understanding of Britain leaving the UK could differ from the next person's. During the referendum campaign, many of those who campaigned to leave the European Union came up with differing opinions - or suggestions - as to what they think UK outside of the EU would be. In fact, of their suggestions or wishes, neither aligned or matched with one other and therefore leaves so much confusion as the proposal. Some of the example of those wishes included such treaties as Canada, Norway and Switzerland have with the EU.

However, the core arguement that led to the referendum was based on immigration - or free movement within the EU. On that assumption, it's obviously the Canadian treaty with the EU that is more matching. If that be so, does Mrs May, the Prime Minister mean the same when she made that statement or not?

Since therefore no one in Britain knows, or no pre-eminent definition or understanding exists as to what Brexit is, the Prime Minister's statement is very hollow and can probably never been used against her even if no fundamental change happens between the UK and the EU. In fact, the Prime Minister's statement is actually very clever, non-committal and points to nothing. This last point is particularly considerable and of poignant stance because the Prime Minister publicly - at least - supported the UK to remain in the EU. It leaves us to wonder if the Prime Minister is being rather coy so to secur her position than for delivering the UK out of the EU.

Based on the above, it'd be perfectly fine to doubt that Brexit - whatever that means - may not happen. And even if Brexit - whatever that means - happens, we may not be able to tell either way if the Prime Minister delivered that promise or not. Politics as usual.

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